Rethinking Conventional Wisdom in a Shifting Investment Landscape
In this paper, we discuss the historically wide P/E discounts and dividend premiums which we believe bode well for the relative performance of EAFE over U.S. equities in the years to come. The debt maturity profile of the U.S. also presents challenges, given its extremely short-term composition. One-third of U.S. debt will mature in the coming year, all subject to higher refinancing rates. As this occurs, interest expense as a percent of tax revenues collected will soon approach and likely exceed 50% – a level seen only once before in the post WWII era.